New Delhi/Guwahati, Dec. 15: India today lavished praise on Bhutan for launching a military offensive against Northeast militant groups operating from its territory, but senior bureaucrats remained sceptical about its ability to keep the rebels out for good.
A senior official said Bhutan?s military manpower and equipment might be inadequate to maintain control over the areas from where militants of the Ulfa and the National Democratic Front of Boroland (NDFB) were being shunted out.
He claimed the top leaders of both groups fled the Himalayan kingdom before the operation began.
?With their leaders already out of Bhutan, the militants are likely to disperse in groups of two or three and remain in hiding within the country. Some could try to sneak out to Bangladesh through Assam and Bengal, but with Indian forces stationed on the borders for this, it would probably be safer for them to stay within the kingdom.?
The official said the militants would not find it difficult to stay within the country undetected. ?The terrain is a very difficult one and the militants can easily hide there for months without being detected. The Bhutanese will find it difficult to keep their army and police tied up in this operation for months. Once they clear out, the Ulfa and NDFB rebels are likely to get back to their former locations.?
The easy way out for Bhutan is to allow the Indian forces to fan out into all seven districts where the militants have camps, but this is perhaps the last option King Jigme Singye Wangchuk will exercise. The monarch zealously guards his country?s sovereignty and is against the presence of Indian forces in Bhutanese territory, though troops have crossed the border more than once in hot pursuit of militants.
Bhutan had been procrastinating on military operations against militant groups of the Northeast because of the risk of its citizens being targeted while passing through Assam, which they do very often. In 2001, Bodo militants killed several Bhutanese in transit.
Since 1998, the Bhutanese government held five round of talks with the Ulfa leadership and three with the NDFB to convince them to leave its territory. The Ulfa closed four camps on December 31, 2001, only to set up bases elsewhere in the kingdom.
During the last round of talks, held in October, the Ulfa and NDFB delegations said their organisations could not close the main camps. However, they promised to come up with an alternative solution by the first week of this month.
Saturday?s edition of Bhutan?s official newspaper, Kuensel, said neither group stuck to its commitment. The report quoted the NDFB leadership as saying during the talks in October that Bhutan must choose between its ties with India ? ?a relationship that has been in existence for little more than 50 years? ? and the ?2000-year-old fraternal relations with the Bodo people?.
Bhutan?s decision to go ahead with the military offensive prompted Prince Jigyel Ugyen Wangchuck to return home from Oxford midway through his term.