BJP fails to woo regional parties in state

GUWAHATI, August 19: The nationwide drive launched by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to woo regional parties to have an electoral alliance with it has not had any success in the state much to the relief of the Congress. The saffron party's success has remained limited to striking a deal with the All Bodo Students' Union (ABSU)-backed Bodo political groups in the Kokrajhar constituency only. Sources in the state BJP said though the national leadership of the party was interested in having an electoral alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the regional party did not give any positive response in this regard. The AGP's no-truck policy towards the BJP is due to its compulsion of heading the ruling coalition in the state with the Communist Party of India, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the United People's Party of Assam (UPPA). All three allies of the AGP are vocal against the BJP and its policies. The Congress will be the happiest to see the AGP and the BJP eating into the same votebank - the urban middle class and the Assamese-speaking ruralites - while the Congress has been able to keep its bastion intact among the tea tribes and migrant Muslims. The Congress enjoys a clear advantage in the tea belt of Upper Assam having seven constituencies. Moreover, the migrant Muslim voters are a deciding influence in about 40 Assembly segments in the state. If one takes into account the results of the last two Lok Sabha polls in the state in 1996 and 1998, it is clear that the division of votes between the AGP and BJP indirectly helped Congress. Migrant Muslim votes have influenced poll results in the state on most occasions. It was due to swing of migrant Muslim voters in its favour in the 1996 general election that the AGP bounced back to power in the state, in addition to clinching five Lok Sabha seats. But AGP's failure to deliver saw the migrant Muslim votes swinging back to the Congress in 1998 resulting in its rout. In 1996, the AGP and BJP together polled 43.09 per cent votes out of which AGP polled 27.17 per cent and BJP 15.92 per cent. In 1998, both parties together polled 37.19 per cent votes - 12.72 per cent polled by AGP and 24.47 per cent by BJP. On the other hand, the Congress polled 31.64 per cent votes in 1996 and 38.97 cent in 1998. In 1996, the AGP and Congress won five Lok Sabha seats each, while the BJP, the CPM, the People's Democratic Front-backed Independent and the Autonomous State Demand Committee bagged one seat each. In 1998, the Congress and its ally United Minorities Front bagged 11 seats - Congress bagged 10 and UMF one. The rest three seats were shared by the BJP, the ASDC and the ABSU-backed Independent. All the five seats which the AGP won in Brahmaputra Valley in 1996 polls were captured by Congress in 1998. On the other hand, the BJP despite winning only Silchar seat in 1998, was placed second to Congress in as many as nine constituencies.