GUWAHATI, June 11: The Economic Survey of Assam, 2004, which was released today by Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi contains mixed news for the people: whereas it projects an impressive growth rate of GDP and per capita income of the State, it warns that the industrial sector needs to be revved up to accelerate this growth.
The report has predicted an advance figure for the State’s GDP at more than 6 per cent for 2003-04, a quantum jump from the ‘quick’ estimate of 3.9 per cent for 2002-03. It may be mentioned here that the corresponding figure for 1994-95 was 2.8 per cent, which had gone up to 3.2 per cent in the following year.
Again, the document mentions that the per capita income figure for 2003-04 has been estimated at Rs 12,593. Assam’s per capita income in 1994-95, the base year, was Rs 6,493, which had gone up to Rs 11,034 by 2001-02. A year later, this figure had crept up to Rs 11,755, according to the ‘quick’ estimates.
According to the report, this visible health in the State’s vital economic signs was because of a shift in the basis of the economy. Whereas until a few years ago, Assam had an agro-economy with its attendant ills, the manufacturing and processing sector has now been showing signs of progress. The survey also mentions that the growth of the State’s economy is "likely to register an upward trend in the coming years."
However, although the Survey notes that the General Index of Industrial Production of the State has climbed up over the years, there has been a "mixed performance" among the different industries. Whereas industrial items like refinery products, cement and fertilizer are being produced in larger quantities, production has fallen in other sectors such as tea processing, grain mill products, paper, and jute.
"The overall industrial scenario of the State is expected to improve considerably in the near future due to efforts made by the State Government through announcement of a New Industrial Policy, aimed at attracting private investors from outside," the report notes. However, it also pointed out that the performance of the mining sector has not been satisfactory, and the power situation continues to be "erratic."
The report also notes with concern that the number of persons employed in the organized economic sectors had decreased between 2001 and 2002. Whereas the number of job-seekers had gone up to 15.72 lakh by the end of 2002, placements, which stood at a meagre 942 in 2001, plummeted to 747 the following year.
Noting that the State has had to pass through trying times over the past few years because of insurgency, natural calamities and shaky financial condition, the report says that the task of development was therefore made difficult. "However, despite constraints, the State has been able to achieve considerable progress in diverse fields as reflected in the growth of SDP in the last two to three years," the document adds.