Kashmir truce model for NE

NEW DELHI, March 2: After Jammu and Kashmir, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee now wants to try out the ceasefire experiment in the entire Northeast. The truce proposal - in all probability a conditional offer - is likely to be announced in Parliament later this month. According to sources, it will be offered to all insurgent outfits, including both the Isak-Muivah and Khaplang factions of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim, ULFA, National Democratic Front of Boroland and those operating in Tripura. The Chief Ministers of Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh today "informally" gave the Centre the go-ahead to extend its four-year ceasefire with the NSCN(IM), paving the way for a unilateral truce with all militant groups. Sources said Vajpayee and home minister L.K. Advani convinced the three Chief Ministers - Prafulla Mahanta (Assam), Radhabinod Koijam (Manipur) and Mukut Mithi (Arunachal) -that their green-signal to broadbase the existing ceasefire with the NSCN(IM) would "usher in peace" and ultimately benefit the Northeast. "Their (the Chief Ministers') response has been positive. They were earlier reluctant but have now changed their stand. The Centre's objective is to bring peace and development to the region," Advani told reporters, but added in the same breath that "extension of the ceasefire" did not mean the government had conceded the NSCN(IM)'s "demand for a Greater Nagalim". The sources said Vajpayee would make the truce announcement towards the end of this month, now that the "clearance" of the three states, which have a sizeable number of Nagas, has been obtained. But they warned that the "road to peace is fraught with danger" because of the region's "inherent complexities". According to an observer, the Northeast was "more complex" than Kashmir. The Centre had been trying to coax and cajole the three states into giving their consent to extending the Centre-NSCN(IM) ceasefire. Last year, the three Chief Ministers - Manipur was then led by W. Nipamacha Singh - had opposed the move, saying it would aggravate the situation. A hint of what the Centre was planning came on February 27 when Koijam declared a month-long "ceasefire" with all 17 groups operating in Manipur without consulting the home ministry. But not all are optimistic. A senior official said the experience of the Centre-NSCN(IM) truce had made them wiser. "Nearly four years have elapsed but constructive dialogue to bring about a political solution to the Naga problem has yet to start. If anything, the NSCN(IM) has been able to make the Centre wilt before some of its major conditions before the ceasefire came into effect in July 1997," he said. The sources said the Centre would also have to take into account the fact that some outfits could reject the truce offer. The People's Revolutionary Party for Kangleipak (PREPAK) has already rejected Koijam's "ceasefire". Moreover, with Assam going to the polls soon, Central officials wonder what made Mahanta give his consent.