GUWAHATI, April 1 — Population pattern plays a key role in determining the fate of political parties in several key Lok Sabha constituencies of Assam and there are constituencies where the Congress have traditionally done well even during the polls which were held amidst anti-Congress wave in the State. According to records available in the Election Commission of India website, in Dibrugarh constituency, dominated by the tea tribes, the Congress have been doing very well for years together and no party even came close to posing a serious challenge to the Congress in successive elections. In the last general elections, Paban Singh Ghatowar was elected to the Parliament by securing more than 48 per cent of the votes, while, his nearest rival Ajit Chaliha of the BJP secured 36 per cent of votes. But in the previous five general elections including during the AGP wave all over the State in 1985, the Congress candidates managed to secure more than 50 per cent of the votes, leaving their rivals way behind in the electoral race. This happened mainly because of the failure of other political parties to make a serious dent in the vote bank of the tea community, which has been traditionally supporting the Congress.
For the ensuing polls, the BJP has managed to rope in former Tea Tribes Students’ Association leader Kamakhya Prasad Tasa to contest against Ghatowar, while, the AGP has also fielded a strong candidate, former AASU president and legislator Sarbananda Sonowal and both the parties are confident of putting up a strong fight to Ghatowar.
Similarly, the Jorhat parliamentary constituency is also a traditional stronghold of the Congress because of the presence of a sizeable number of voters belonging to the tea tribes. Congress candidate Bijoy Krishna Handique has been elected to the parliament from the constituency since 1991 and only in the 1985 polls, during the AGP wave following the signing of the Assam Accord, Parag Chaliha of the AGP was elected to the parliament from the constituency.
The Dhubri parliamentary constituency, dominated by voters belonging to the Minority community, is another traditional stronghold of the Congress and candidates of the party have been elected to the Parliament with comfortable margin since 1991. Interestingly, BJP candidates came second from the constituency in the last two general elections and this time the party has fielded a woman candidate belonging to the minority community from the constituency in an attempt to gain the support of the community, which is the deciding factor.
Interestingly, in sharp contrast, fortunes of the political parties change with every successive election from the prestigious Guwahati Parliamentary constituency. According to the records available in the Election Commission website, Bijoya Chakraborty of the BJP was elected to the Parliament from the constituency by securing 45.95 per cent of the votes, while, Congress candidate Bhubaneswar Kalita came second with 36.96 per cent of the votes. In the 1998 polls, Bhubaneswar Kalita was elected to the Parliament defeating his BJP rival. The AGP won the seat in 1996, Congress in 1991, AGP in 1985 and BLD in 1977. This time the BJP has fielded Dr Bhupen Hazarika from the constituency with the hope of breaking the cycle of any party not retaining the seat in successive elections. Former Home Minister Bhrigu Kumar Phukan has rejoined the AGP and is contesting from the constituency, while, Congress has fielded former MP Kirip Chaliha to contest from Guwahati. The election to the constituency is likely to see interesting political battle in the ensuing polls with heavyweights in the fray.
The voters belonging to the Minority community also play a deciding role in the Karimganj Lok Sabha constituency and Nepal Chandra Das of Congress was elected to the Parliament from the constituency in the last two general elections. But Das has recently resigned from the Congress and is contesting the ensuing polls on an AGP ticket. Interestingly, mainly because of polarisation of votes on lines of community, BJP candidate Dwaraka Nath Das was elected from the constituency twice in 1991 and 1996. Similarly, in the other constituency from the Barak valley, that is in the Silchar constituency, fortunes changed hands between Santosh Mohan Dev of the Congress and Kabindra Purkayastha of the BJP since 1991 polls.
The Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC) has been maintaining its stranglehold in the Autonomous District constituency as Dr Jayanta Rongpi of the party was elected from the constituency since then. But this time, with the division in the ASDC, the Congress has a better chance of putting up a strong fight in the constituency. The Independent candidates backed by Bodo nonpolitical organisations always had an edge in the Kokrajhar constituency and ABSU backed candidate Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmutiary was elected from the constituency in the last two general elections and this time too, he is backed by the ABSU and with the students’ body making signing of the accord between Central and State Governments and BLT and formation of the Bodoland Territorial Council its main election planks, he has an edge over his rivals.
In Barpeta constituency, Congress candidate Golam Osmani was elected in the last two general elections, while, CPM candidate Uddhab Barman was elected in the previous two elections. The fortunes of the political parties changed hands frequently in the Mangaldoi constituency, while, Tezpur constituency, with presence of sizeable number of tea community voters, the Congress always manages to maintain its hold. AGP candidate Muhiram Saikia was elected from the Nagaon constituency thrice since 1985, but the Congress regained the constituency in 1998 and BJP candidate Rajen Gohain was elected in the last general elections. The fortunes of the parties also changed hands frequently in Kaliabor and Lakhimpur constituencies since 1985.