Unprepared societies face brunt of quake disaster

GUWAHATI, February 21: The consequent disastrous situations of an earthquake are mainly the results of the quality of the specific human societies to meet the challenges of the devastating power of the earthquakes these societies, are exposed to. This is the reason why the earthquakes of a similar magnitude fail to cause any significant damage to the peole of a prepared society, while it leaves behind trails of devastation for the people of the unprepared societies, said renowned seismologist Vinod Kumar Gaur here today. Gaur, presently a Distinguished Professor at the Centre for Astrophysics, Bangalore and a former Professor of the University of Roorki and a former Director of the National Geophysics Research Institute, Hyderabad, besides, a former Secretary to the Government of India, was delivering a lecture and answering to the questions of the audience on issues related to earthquake disaster in NE region at a function organised by the Environmental Science Department of Gauhati University (GU) this morning. Saying that earthquakes do not kill people, he claimed that the collapsing building and other structures lead to the destructions of life and property and hence is the importance of knowing and understanding this natural phenomenon so that losses could be minimised. The long accumulation of strain within the earth's crust caused by the tectonic factors, lead to earthquakes. As the Indian plate is being pushed constantly, like a bulldozer, against the Eurasian plate, a process of accumulation of strain is on in the border of the Indian plate in the western, northern and eastern and north eastern parts. The eastern and Northeastern parts of the plate is moving under the Himalayas at an annual rate varying between 5 mm and 10 mm. These parts are under a much higher strain than the western part of the plate, he said. No doubt areas like the Meghalaya Plateau, are also seismically active, he said, adding, but the strain released by the plate in these part so far is yet to be ascertained fully, which gives rise to the common apprehension that a major earthquake is in the making in these parts. Commenting on the probably intensity of the earthquake in the making in NE India, he said that the Himalayan earthquake here has the power of creating a tremor of 8.5 magnitude on the Richter scale as an earthquake here goes on accumulating strain upto that level. If this happens, such an earthquake will release the tremor creating strain of 30 times greater than the tremor created by the Pokhran explosion (ie 5 magnitude), he said. When asked whether the accumulated strain under the earth's crust in this region could be released through some scientific procedure in a phased manner, he said that he did not believe that it was possible, adding, "I do not discount that the Himalayan earthquake will be a major one". But, he also maintained that prediction of an earthquake is possible. Though he later withdrew his statement on the issue, he hastened to say that personally he believed that prediction was not possible in relation to the occurrence of an earthquake, although it is quite possible to asses the consequences of the disaster and tell the people that a major earthquake is in the making to keep them prepared. For observing the phenomenon of strain accumulation precision equipment, which with the help of satellites can detect even least movements of the earth's crust, are also available in the country. In Shillong in NE region, such a system is there, he said. Commenting on the preparedness, he said, people in the region can get themselves prepared with technology, regulatory measures, safe practices like constructing safe structures, and, awareness programmes and thus can minimise losses. But, for all these a deeper understanding of the phenomenon of the geophysical structures of the ground on which structures are raised, is most essential, he said. The designers of the structures are also to make sure that frequency of the structures they design, do not resonate to the vibration caused by the tremors of high magnitude. They should also know the soil condition seriously, because even if the structures remain intact they may sink because of the liquefaction of the soil in the event of a high magnitude earthquake, he said. The function, which was attended by the senior members of the GU faculties, the Deputy Commissioner, Kamrup, several members of the State's scientific community and GU students, was also addressed, among others by GU Vice-Chancellor HL Duorah and Head of the Department of GU Environmental Science DC Goswami. It may be mentioned here that Gaur was on a tour to the NE region in connection with the installation of precision seismometers at Bomdilla in Arunachal Pradesh, in Meghalaya and in Assam, besides a Golbal Positioning System (GPS) in the GU Environmental Science Department.